Techem Atlas | Heating cost forecast 2025: Mixed picture across Europe – Poland and Spain lead increases, Denmark is expected to see decline

Eschborn, January 15, 2026. Based on Techem’s latest heating cost forecast for selected European markets, most households should expect higher heating costs in 2025 even though several energy prices decreased. Techem, an internationally leading service provider for smart and sustainable buildings, that manages more than 13 million apartments, publishes an annual heating cost forecast based on price and weather data. The main driver behind the 2025 outcome is the changed weather conditions which led to a colder winter in 25 compared to 24 and therefore, increased energy consumption in most countries.

Although energy prices have fallen in some markets, higher consumption due to colder temperatures in 2025 will more than offset this effect, causing heating costs to rise in most countries: Poland (+12.4%) and Spain (+10.1%) will see the sharpest cost increases, followed by Italy (+8.4%), Germany (+8.6%), and Austria (+8.3%). Belgium and Switzerland are expected to see moderate increases (+4.7% and 3.4%, respectively), while Denmark (-2.6%) is expected to see an overall decline in costs.

Colder season drives up consumption 
Heating energy consumption increased clearly in most markets, reflecting lower outside temperatures during the 2025 heating season (vs. 2024). Expected changes in consumption: Poland (+13.0%), Spain (+13.0%), Austria (+12.7%), Italy (+12.6%), Germany (+11.6%), Switzerland (+8.0%), Belgium (+4.7%) and Denmark (-0.2%).

Price picture: mixed results throughout different countries

• Gas prices fell in several markets (e.g., Denmark -13.1%, Austria -6.0%, Switzerland -5.6%, Germany -1.6%) but rose in Belgium (+9.5%) and Poland (+10.1). 
• Heating oil prices declined in most countries (e.g., Poland -15.0%, Switzerland -8.5%, Germany -8.2%, and Austria -5.7%). 
• Whereas district heating prices increased in almost all countries with available data (Denmark +4.84, Poland +3.1%, Germany +1.5%, Switzerland +1.3%%).     

Cost picture: increase results for almost all energy sources 
The prices and consumption can be used to calculate the projected costs. These are rising in most markets, with gas and district heating being particularly affected: 

• Costs for heating with gas rose in almost all markets (e.g., Poland +24.5%, Spain +15.8%, Belgium +14.7%, Italy +10.2%, Germany +9.7%, Austria +6.0%, Switzerland +1.92%) but fell in Denmark (-13.2%). 
• Heating oil costs declined in some countries (e.g., Belgium –5.3%, Poland –3.9%, Switzerland –1.3%) but rose in others (e.g. Italy +6.7%, Austria +6.3%, Spain +4.3%, Germany +2.4%, Denmark+ 0.8%). 
• Whereas district heating costs increased in all countries with available data (Poland +16.5%, Germany +13.2%, Austria +12.7%, Switzerland +9.4% and Denmark +4.6%). 

Digital solutions support savings 
“Our heating cost forecast highlights how crucial transparency in energy consumption has become,” says Matthias Hartmann, CEO of Techem. “Digitalisation is key to improving efficiency and sustainability in buildings. By providing clear insights into consumption patterns, we empower residents and property managers to make informed decisions. At Techem, we combine decades of expertise with innovative digital solutions that help optimise heating systems and reduce emissions. Smart metering and data-driven services enable us to turn information into action – ensuring that energy is used responsibly and costs remain under control.”

About the heating cost forecast 
The Techem Atlas heating cost forecast 2025 is based on weather and price data to provide a view on expected cost developments for the 2025 heating season compared to 2024 and was calculated with the arithmetic mean. Sources include the EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Eurostat) and weather data from meteostat.net, validated with datasets from the German Weather Service (dwd). 

Image information: Heating cost forecast 2025: Mixed picture across Europe – Poland and Spain lead increases, Denmark is expected to see decline (Copyright: Techem).