Heating cost forecast: Despite falling energy prices, costs are expected to rise by 8.6%

Falling prices but higher costs expected

At the start of the new year, Techem has once again published its heating cost forecast – an analysis that we present annually to provide early indications of heating cost trends. The Techem Atlas Heating Cost Forecast 2025 is based on weather and price data and provides an outlook on the expected cost development for the 2025/2026 heating period compared to the previous year. The result: despite falling energy prices, consumers must prepare for an average increase of 8.6% in heating costs in 2025. The main driver is a significantly colder heating period in 2025, which has led to a noticeable increase in consumption.

Although prices for gas, electricity, and heating oil have fallen recently, the significantly colder weather has offset this effect. Many households had to heat their homes noticeably more, which ultimately led to higher heating costs. All federal states were affected by this, though to varying degrees. The increase was particularly strong in southern and eastern Germany, while the northern federal states got off comparatively lightly.

Detailed figures, regional evaluations, and further background information on developments in individual federal states and cities can be found in the latest press release on Techem's 2025 heating cost forecast.

New this year: an interactive, digital map of Germany. It highlights regional differences at a glance and invites users to explore and compare developments down to city level – a practical tool for all administrators, landlords, and anyone else who is interested.

Our publication generated an exceptionally high level of media response and was widely reported by leading national media outlets – a strong indication that our approach has made a significant contribution to the debate.

The 2025 heating cost forecast highlights how strongly weather conditions influence cost developments – against this backdrop, it becomes clear how important reliable data on one's own energy consumption is. Only those who know where and when energy is being consumed can take targeted countermeasures. Techem therefore relies on digital solutions that create transparency and reveal potential savings – for example, through intra-year consumption information, smart metering systems, or the digital boiler room. These solutions provide a continuous overview of consumption, help to identify anomalies at an early stage, and support owners, managers, and tenants in actively reducing heating costs and using energy more efficiently.

If you want to delve deeper, you can find details on the forecast in our interactive map of Germany (only available in German). If you would like to find out which measures can help increase consumption transparency and potentially save money, you can find information on our product page. 

Image information: Techem has released its heating cost forecast again at the start of the new year (Source: Techem).